What will your money really earn?
Platform calculators stop at compound fantasy. This one shaves off what actually erodes returns - defaults, recoveries, idle cash - across three weather scenarios, and lines the result up against an ETF and a bank deposit.
Enter a monthly contribution from 0 to 100,000 and a tax rate from 0 to 100.
Projected value includes the invested balance plus cash already paid out. Contributions are not profit. Scroll the tables horizontally to see all columns.
How this estimate works
Contributions enter at month-end. Your tax rate is applied monthly to gross interest, without allowances or loss deductions. The scenario reduction is an illustrative annual drag, not a probability. Rates stay constant; results are not guaranteed. ETF and bank examples use the same simplified tax timing. Actual tax rules and payment schedules vary.
Monthly cash flow
Monthly table: nominal euros, even when the chart shows today’s euros. In reinvestment mode, cash paid out is zero. Remaining invested capital is not a scheduled repayment or immediately withdrawable cash.
| Month | Contribution | Gross interest | Scenario reduction | Tax | Net result | Cash paid out | Still invested |
|---|
What the scenarios mean
The calculator cuts the advertised rate by a scenario-based drag: 0.8 points in Sunny (top-quartile platform, no defaults touch your slice), 2.2 points in Realistic (a normal year of defaults, partial recoveries and cash waiting between loans), and 5.5 points in Stormy (a bad platform year with elevated defaults and slow recoveries). The cuts are calibrated to the documented gap between advertised and realised returns across European platforms - see our market statistics.
Previous assumptions (before contributions and tax)
"Reinvest" compounds monthly; "Pay out" sends interest to your account and keeps the principal flat. The ETF benchmark assumes a broad index fund at 7% nominal - the long-run average, minus the volatility a single line cannot show. The deposit line uses 2.5% with state guarantees up to EUR 100,000. Taxes are not modelled. Nothing here is investment advice - it is arithmetic with honest inputs.
Three reads worth your ten minutes.
What investors actually earned
The advertised-vs-realised gap, platform by platform - the data behind this tool.
The risks nobody advertises
Six ways P2P loses money and the checks that catch most of them early.